The more common the spread, the more accurate the expected win percentage is going to be. Since we have taken their built in edge out of each probability, we can feel confident that we are getting real value if the money line posted at our book is better than the price in the chart. This way we can use the data to identify potential opportunities to take the money line when it is not properly priced. Sportsbooks don’t offer fair market odds (otherwise they’d find it difficult to turn a profit). It is important to note that these are the fair market values for each money line. The chart below shows what the money line for NBA games at each spread should be based on the results of over 28,000 NBA games. I wanted to see if it’s worth taking at any different spreads. I went back over the results of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the money line. What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable. Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright. A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150.

This means you would need to wager $184 to win $100 if you bet on that team to win.įor underdogs it works a bit differently.

The money line is adjusted based on the spread to help books mitigate risk.įor example, a favorite of four points in the NBA might have a money line of around -184. For the uninitiated, betting on the money line simply means betting on which team you think will win the game.

Spread to moneyline calculator